Global economy projected to grow by 3.1 pc in 2016
IMF Boss Christine Lagarde |
Global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016
before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1
percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April, reflects a more subdued outlook
for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the
European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States.
According to the International Monetary Fund World Economic
outlook for October says that these developments have put further downward
pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain
accommodative for longer.
Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was
reassuringly orderly, says IMF, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as
the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and
the European Union is uncertain.
Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies
has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies,
reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to
growth, and some firming of commodity prices.
But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions,
with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and
sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp lowdown.
In advanced
economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks
may fuel further political discontent, with antiintegration policy platforms
gaining more traction.
Several emerging market and developing economies still face
daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These
worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise
growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.
Maoni
Chapisha Maoni